Political Weather:
How experiencing climate change shapes our political lives

Søren Damsbo-Svendsen

Let’s begin with a picture.

Professor Ed Hawkins (University of Reading) at showyourstripes.info

It is hard for ordinary citizens to truly understand the climate crisis from statistical information alone

There is another way of learning about climate change

  • Easier, concrete, immediate, and visceral
  • Personal experience

Christophe Gateau/AFP/Getty Images, Josh Edelson/AFP, Patrick T Fallon/AFP/Getty Images, EPA Photo, Rhein-Erft-Kreis/Cologne District Government/AP Photo, Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images, AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos, Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters, AP Photo/Rafael Yaghobzadeh

Climate change creates more extreme weather experiences

Anadolu Agency/Ritzau Scanpix, Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images, Jacob Ehrbahn, Tingshu Wang, Oscar Guerrero Ramirez/Getty Images, Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP, Daniel Leal/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images, Go Nakamura/The New York Times, David McNew/Getty Images

Argument

  • The green transition is too slow, and public support too low
  • Voters increasingly experience climate change
  • Weather affects everybody, and the personal relevance is clear
  • Perhaps experience can cut through climate denialism
    and political polarization
  • Voters are also influenced by traditional information sources: media coverage

Research question



How are voters’ climate opinions and behavior shaped by media coverage of climate change and personal weather experiences?


  • Empirical focus on voters in Denmark


Article 1: Media

Article 1: Media

  • “Mass media influence on the rapid rise of climate change”
  • Published in International Journal of Public Opinion Research (2022)

Does mass media coverage of climate change increase public salience?

(prev. slide) Greenpeace Danmark

Background


  • Climate change became highly salient in 2019
  • What happened?
  • We need information to form opinions
  • Did the mass media play a role?
  • Despite fragmentation of media and audience

Climate change’s rapid rise in 2019


Kantar. (2019). Special Eurobarometer 490 Report: Climate Change. European Commission, Directorate-General for Climate Action.

Climate change’s rapid rise in 2019

  • Spotting the connection is hard
  • Statistical analysis is needed

<Section 8.2 shows weekly media coverage, Section 8.3 shows decomposed time series>

Statistical results


  • Yes, the public responds to more media coverage
  • No sign of reverse causality
  • When climate coverage increases by ~34*,
    public salience grows by 1 %-point
  • Who is influenced?
  • Age 18-29, 30-49, urban, women, Social Democrats (Section 8.7)

<Section 8.5 shows the model output>

A quick summary –


Does mass media coverage of climate change increase public salience?

  • Yes, media climate coverage can drive public salience
  • Concentrated among attentive citizens
    → limit of media influence
  • “Real-world events” drive media coverage
  • Major responsibility

<Supplementary material in Section 8>


Article 2: Temperature

Article 2: Temperature

  • “How weather experiences strengthen climate opinions in Europe”
  • Published in West European Politics (2021)
  • Extension of Egan & Mullin (2012)

Does warmer weather make us more climate conscious?

(prev. slide) Yahoo! News



  • 12 European countries
  • Climate opinions (index)
  • Temperatures* in past 7 days

Results

  • Warmer-than-usual weather increase climate awareness
  • 5°C temperature shift
    strengthens climate
    opinions by 0.5–1.0
  • Small effect, but …

<Section 9.5 shows a meta-analysis>

Who is affected?

Who is affected?

  • Only suggestive evidence
  • Temperatures affect everybody

A quick summary –


Does warmer weather make us more climate conscious?

  • Yes!
  • Across 12 European countries
  • Robust effect of warmer-than-normal temperatures
  • Same for everyone

<Supplementary material in Section 9>


Article 3: Flooding

Article 3: Flooding

  • “Pro-climate voting in response to local flooding”
  • Published in Political Behavior (2024)

Does local flooding experience lead to pro-climate voting?

(prev. slide) Vikingeskibsmuseet

Lynæs Bådelaug

Jeanne & John Bollerup-Jensen

Pro-climate voting

Effect estimates

Part 2: Pro-climate candidates


  • Polling advice application
    (kandidattest)
  • What key priorities do candidates
    communicate about?
  • Climate-related issues?


Altinget/DR

Pro-climate candidates

Green transition. Global warming is a serious threat to our entire future on Earth. Therefore, it is important that we, also locally, take responsibility for changing course, for example through improved recycling, and, generally, by working towards burdening the environment as little as possible

- Candidate from Green Left (SF)

Climate adaptation. We must work to secure our citizens when changing weather threatens their homes

- Candidate from the Social Democrats (S)

Storm surge protection. We are in high risk of flooding during storm surge. We experienced it in January, and we still have citizens living in temporary housing 10 months later. If we don’t do something, large parts of the municipality will be flooded

- Candidate from the Liberal Party (V)

Analysis

Results

Results

A quick summary –


Does local flooding experience lead to pro-climate voting?

  • Yes – parties and candidates
  • Several %-points
  • Climate-related issues become salient
  • Salience translated into pro-climate vote using parties’ reputation and candidates’ communication

<Supplementary material in Section 10>


Article 4: Turnout

Article 4: Turnout

  • “When the election rains out and how bad weather
    excludes marginal voters from turning out”
  • Published in Electoral Studies (2023)
  • Co-authored with Kasper M. Hansen

How does the weather affect electoral turnout?

(prev. slide) Edward Linsmier/AFP

Rainfall and turnout

Our study

  • Registry data on 4,459,145 eligible voters’ turnout

Election Day weather


  • Turnout around 70%
    (2013: 72%, 2017: 71%)
  • 30% don’t vote
  • What role does the weather play?

Results

  • Rainfall reduces P(voting) by almost 1 %-points per cm

Results

  • Rainfall effect grows with more rainfall
  • Sunshine increases turnout

Who is susceptible to bad weather?

  • Young voters!

A quick summary –


How does the weather affect electoral turnout?

  • Experienced weather shapes turnout
  • Rainfall reduces turnout by 1 %-point per 1 cm
  • Stronger effect of extreme weather
  • Young voters most susceptible
  • Implications for democratic representation
  • … climate change?

<Supplementary material in Section 11>

Conclusion

Research Question: How are voters’ climate opinions and behavior shaped by media coverage of climate change and personal weather experiences?

  • Positive or “constructive” responses to climate change
  • Climate change – a self-correcting problem?
  • Responsibility of political elites
  • “Political Weather”
  • Everyday experiences

Thank you

Overview

Supplementary material for Article 1: Media

<Summary in Section 2.6, overview in Section 7.1>

Measuring media coverage



“\bklima|global[e]? opvarmning|co2|drivhuseffekt|drivhusgas|climate|global warming”

  1. Natural log of the number of keyword hits (default)
  2. Raw number of keyword hits
  3. Square root of the number of keyword hits
  4. Number of climate articles (1+ keyword hits)

Weekly media coverage

<Section 2.4 shows the main time series>

Time series decomposition

Residual variance = VAR model input

<Section 2.4 shows the main time series>

Statistical results

Cross-lagged panel correlation

<Section 2.5 summarises the results>

Statistical results

Vector autoregression model

<Section 2.5 summarises the results>

Statistical results

Vector autoregression model with varying lag order

<Section 2.5 summarises the results>

Who is responsive to media climate coverage?

  • Education: Age 30-49
  • Immigration: Age 70+, rural, men, center-right (not populist right)

<Section 2.5 summarises the results>

Supplementary material for Article 2: Temperature

<Summary in Section 3.6, overview in Section 7.1>

Temperature measure


temperature_{ct} = \frac{1}{7} \sum_{t-7}^{t-1}{mean\ temperature_{ct} - normal\ temperature_{ct}}



Data collection

Balance check


OLS model


Meta-analysis


Sugerman et al. (2021). “Local warming is real: A meta-analysis of the effect of recent temperature on climate change beliefs.”

Placebo test

Robustness checks

Changing the sample size or 7-day temperature window

Left-right party ID

Supplementary material for Article 3: Flooding

<Summary in Section 4.12, overview in Section 7.1>

Storm surge timeline and map

Climate issue ownership

Balance

<Coefficient plot in Section 4.6>

Event study plot

Pro-climate parties

Climate candidate keywords

Additional pro-climate candidate examples

Climate and environment. I have worked actively to change the storm surge legislation. Now, we need additional measures to secure our coasts and our environment. I will work to influence the national government to finance large coastal protection projects. When storm surge strikes, it takes too long for state, municipality, and citizens to discuss the economic aspects

- Candidate from the Liberal Party (V)

Climate-friendly municipality. I want us, as quickly as possible, to create a sustainable municipality that benefits ourselves and future generations. It must happen through the use of new technology and by including sustainability in every decision made by the municipality

- Candidate from a local list

Green municipality. More climate adaptation and more efficient energy use = ambitious CO2 targets

- Candidate from Conservative People’s Party (KF)

Climate and environment. Put the planet over profits! My heart beats most for green issues because our future depends on it. Our ambition must be to become a self-sufficient, carbon neutral municipality. We can do that by improving energy efficiency in our buildings and incorporate climate and environment in every relevant proposal

- Candidate from the Red-Green Alliance (Ø)

Candidate data details


  1. Begin with merged dataset (votes and survey): 11,774 candidates
  2. Add vote tallies from each district and election: 194,039 rows (candidate-district-elections)
  3. Merge with district flooding
  4. Restrict to coastal districts:
    • 118,176 rows (candidate-district-elections)
    • 7,671 unique persons or 9,748 unique election-candidates
    • 2,077 (approx. 42%) run in both elections

Mechanism

  • Voters with flooding experience prefer pro-climate candidates
  • Issue salience and candidate communication
  • Not driven by supply-side:
    • converted climate candidates (Section 10.10)
    • party promotion of climate candidates
    • mobilization of new candidates
  • Nor by overlap between pro-climate candidates
    and incumbents or pro-welfare candidates

Candidates becoming pro-climate?

Sample: 2,077 candidates running in both elections

Parliamentary speeches

Media coverage

Supplementary material for Article 4: Turnout

<Summary in Section 5.8, overview in Section 7.1>

Weather measures






Local\ weather_{vt} = \frac{ \sum^3_i{(Observation_{it}/Distance^2_i)} }{ \sum^3_i{(1/Distance^2_i)} }

Covariate balance: age, distance, and density

Non-linear weather effects


Additional robustness checks


  1. One weather variable at a time
  2. No additional control variables: age, close to coast, local population density, gender, ln(population),
    non-western immigrant population share, closeness of election
  3. Adding municipality fixed effects
  4. Restricting to non-movers
  5. Restricting to age 40-60
  6. Excluding addresses with many residents
  7. Using nearest weather station and limiting maximum distance
  8. Placebo test with weather from 30/60 days before Election Day
  9. A range of alternative standard errors
  10. Logistic regression

What’s next?

  1. Conditions: When and where do citizens respond constructively to climate experiences – why?
  2. Interaction: How do personal weather experiences interact with elite communication?
  3. Psychology: Learning about climate change or superficial use of heuristics?

Professor Ed Hawkins (University of Reading) at showyourstripes.info

Professor Ed Hawkins (University of Reading) at showyourstripes.info

Professor Ed Hawkins (University of Reading) at showyourstripes.info