class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # How the Effect of Weather Experiences on Climate Opinions is Moderated by Information on the Link between Weather Extremes and Climate Change ## DAC-BIM presentation ### Søren Damsbo-Svendsen ### Tobias Heide-Jørgensen ### Department of Political Science<br>University of Copenhagen ### 2 December 2021 --- # Background <br> - **Survey** on climate change opinion formation - To be conducted in DK in January 2022 by Epinion - Split-sample experimental design - Around 30 questions in total --- # Theory and contribution <br> - Several ways to come across information about climate change, notably: - Personal (weather) experience - Media coverage (communication) - We expect both to potentially strengthen climate opinions - But how do they interact? Are personal experiences activated/politicized by mediated accounts of how local weather extremes relate to climate change? When does climate science communication "work"? > __Preliminary RQ: How does information about the scientific link between global climate change and extreme local weather events moderate the influence of personal experience with such events on climate opinions?__ - Contributes to (a) climate change communication and (b) opinion formation --- # Case and treatments .pull-left[ - **Case**: Unprecedented Danish summer weather in 2018 with **heat**waves, drought, and excessive sunshine - Everybody has (varying) experiences with **heat** and connection to climate change is clear ## Treatments 1. **Facts about the 2018 summer** to aid recall<br>[no mention of climate change] 2. **Information about the link** between extreme weather and climate change 3. (Additional) information about potential **consequences** for (a) respondent personally or (b) other people 4. Objective **recent temperatures** where the respondent lives [not manipulated] ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#media/beach.jpg" width="1000px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#media/drought.jpg" width="1000px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- # Core hypotheses *Personal weather experience* - **H1:** Recalling the extreme **summer weather** in 2018 increases "climate awareness" - **H2:** Recent exposure to warmer-than-usual **temperatures** increases "climate awareness" -- *Personal weather experience plus information* - **H3:** **Information** on the scientific link between extreme weather and climate change increases "climate awareness" - **H4:** The recall effect (H1) and temperature effect (H2) are strengthened by climate-weather **information** -- *Priming self-interest* - **H5:** The direct effect of **information** (H3) and the moderation effect of information (H4) are both stronger when the information treatment primes **self-interest** --- # Survey design sketch <img src="data:image/png;base64,#media/design.png" width="750px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- # Treatment 1 - Facts about the 2018 summer .pull-left[ "Now we will ask you to think back to the Danish summer of 2018 almost four years ago. Do you remember what the weather was like? Here are some highlights: - Record-breaking heat - Numerous heatwaves - Most sunny summer ever recorded - The worst drought in a century - Nation-wide open burning ban How well do you remember the summer weather of 2018?" ] --- # Treatment 2 - Information on link to climate change .pull-left[ "Research shows that human activity is changing the climate. This creates a new normal for the Danish weather with higher risk of heatwaves, drought, cloudbursts, and storm surges. - Emissions of greenhouse gasses increase Earth's temperature - New research shows that the average temperature in Denmark has already increased by 2.3 degrees and is headed towards 4.2 degrees in 2100 - Consequently, extreme heat becomes more intense, frequent, and long-lasting - Any summer can still be cold or hot, but the most extreme and dangerous hot summers have become 50 times more likely" ] --- # Treatment 3 - Information on consequences .pull-left[ "Higher temperatures in the future can have negative consequences for <**you and your family**>/<**people in Denmark**> as extreme heat can damage food systems, nature, and infrastructure, and can have negative health impacts such as headaches, faintness, etc. etc." ] --- # Treatment 4 - Recent temperatures .pull-left[ - Objectively measured average temperature - Measured where the respondent lives - 7 days before survey response - Relative to normal temperature for that time and place ] --- # Outcomes <br> Three dimensions: 1. "**Climate awareness**" (perceptions of global climate change, human causes, problem status, risk perceptions, etc.) 2. **Climate worry** (e.g., for oneself/family, country, ecosystems, world's vulnerable people) 3. **Policy support**, intended **behavioral change**, and **willingness-to-pay** --- # Survey design sketch again <img src="data:image/png;base64,#media/design.png" width="750px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />